Few among Israel's politicians want boots on the
ground in Gaza; many in Hamas do
As the war between Gaza and Israel enters its fourth day, there are
growing indications that neither side has an exit strategy for ending
hostilities.
In part, this is because neither Israel nor Hamas wanted the war in the
first place. Both were dragged into it as prisoners of their own narratives,
pride, egos and one-sided perceptions.
This is the third war of its kind between the two sides since 2010.
There is a sense of déjà vu, except that the military technologies have
improved, there is greater firepower, and Hamas has a much larger arsenal of
rockets.
So far, this war is an unequal pounding of one side by the other.
Israel's mighty air force has already carried out more than 600 sorties
targeting military commanders and their houses, weapons depots, launchers and
launching pads as well as bunkers and tunnels.
Hamas for its part is retaliating by launching rockets of all types and
ranges – the longest-rage up to 200 km – at major Israeli cities, including
Jerusalem, Haifa, Tel Aviv, and even the Ben Gurion International Airport (in
an attempt to disrupt flights). They are also trying to hit the city of Dimona,
in Israel's south, where Israel's nuclear reactor, an iconic symbol of its
strategic superiority, is located. So far, Hamas has launched nearly a thousand
rockets, including 50 long-range ones. Since the Islamist organization has
nearly 10,000 rockets at its disposal, including 300 long range ones, it has
the ability to continue bombarding Israel.
While Hamas endures painful blows, Israel has suffered no casualties.
This is mainly due to the shelters spread throughout the country as well as the
outstanding performance of the Iron Dome anti-missile system, which has thus
far intercepted most of the long-range rockets aimed at central and northern Israel.
Unfortunately, there is no defensive system that can protect areas close
to Gaza from short-range rockets and mortar shells.
Israel's inability to stop the rocket fire stems from insufficient
intelligence. In contrast to the 2012 campaign, this time Israeli intelligence
knows less about the locations and size of Hamas' rocket depots, launchers,
launching pads and positions.
It is also clear that Hamas has learned lessons from past battles and
from Hezbollah's experience in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Hamas has literally
decided to "go underground." In recent years they have built
"underground cities" in Gaza that now serve now as arsenal storage,
control, command and communications posts as well as safe houses for their
military and political leadership.
Earlier this week, Hamas set forth its preconditions for reinstating the
2012 cease-fire. The main demand is to release Palestinian prisoners
(terrorists in Israeli parlance) who were released three years ago in a
prisoner swap and then re-arrested and jailed by Israel following the
kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers last month in the West Bank.
Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu said Thursday in the Knesset that a
cease-fire with Hamas was not on the agenda. Netanyahu was asked a number of times
whether the government had certain political goals and whether he was speaking
with Egypt or other countries to try to bring about a cease-fire through
diplomatic means. "I am not talking to anybody about a cease-fire right
now," Netanyahu told a Knesset committee. "It's not even on the
agenda."
Thus it is only reasonable to conclude that the war will continue for
another week or more.
But if the aerial campaign fails to put an end to the rocket fire in the
very near future – and the chances of that seem slim -- the IDF will have no
choice but to send its ground forces into Gaza. Israel's cabinet and military
leadership do not want to do it, but continued rocket fire and the resulting
public discontent will leave them no choice.
That is exactly what Hamas wants: to lure Israel into a ground invasion
of Gaza. All Hamas needs to do is to hold out for as long as it can, keep
launching rockets and prolong the war so that Israeli soldiers bleed and sink
into the Gaza sand dunes.
Yossi Melman is an Israeli intelligence and
security commentator and co-author of “Spies Against Armageddon, inside
Israel’s secret wars."
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