Both sides stuck between a rock and a hard place in desire to save face
Though this may sound like yet another cliché, Israel is approaching the moment of truth in its war against Gaza. The big question on everyone's mind is whether to invade or not to invade. And if so, to what end?
On Thursday night, after a seven-hour cabinet meeting, it seemed as though the incursion into Gaza would begin in a few hours. The IDF had warned residents of Beit Hanoun, a city in northern Gaza close to the Israeli border, to evacuate their homes. Hints had been leaked to the media that sending ground forces into Gaza was inevitable. The Israel Defense Forces distributed photos of soldiers preparing their gear. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was quick to warn Israel not to invade.
Yet nearly 48 hours later it is clear that all this was part of Israel's psychological warfare against Hamas. Practically nothing has changed on the ground. Israel continues to pound Gaza from the air, and to a much lesser degree from sea. The targets include rocket depots and launchers, launching pads, command and control centers, communication posts, tunnels, bunkers, and military commanders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and smaller terrorist groups.
According to the IDF, nearly 1,200 targets have been hit, more than 2,000 rockets destroyed, 300 tunnels demolished, dozens of military and police bases hit and a few dozen commanders and operatives killed. Precise intelligence also allowed Israel to locate and destroy a facility where Hamas had been concealing several mini drones. In doing so, Israel prevented Hamas from springing further surprises on Israel.
Hamas, for its part, keeps launching rockets – short, medium and long-range – against Israeli cities (Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, Beersheba, and others). It also claims to be firing at IDF bases, Ben Gurion International Airport, and the nuclear reactor at Dimona. So far nearly 600 rockets -- an average of 100 per day -- as well as hundreds of mortar shells have been fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip.
But over the last day it seems that both sides have reduced the pace and intensity of their war of attrition. On Saturday, the Israel Air Force blasted fewer targets than in the first four days of the offensive. Nearly 40 percent of Hamas' long-range rockets have been destroyed. Nevertheless, the militant group is capable of firing rockets for at least another two weeks.
The slowed pace of operations is a sign of fatigue on both sides. Still, neither Israel nor Hamas show signs of being ready for a ceasefire. On Friday, in his first press conference since the beginning of this war, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the "campaign will take more time."
Hamas, for its part, needs to save face. It can't accept a ceasefire without showing achievements on the battlefield or in the political arena. It has yet to accomplish either. The Iron Dome anti-missile system, with its 80 percent success rate, combined with the inaccuracy of Hamas rockets, has spared Israeli lives (so far just a few Israelis have been wounded). The fact that Israelis aren't allowing the attacks to significantly disrupt their lives further frustrates Hamas. Israel has not succumbed to Hamas demands to release its recently re-arrested activists in the West Bank or to lift the siege on the Gaza Strip.
There is yet another obstacle to achieving a ceasefire: the dearth of serious and honest brokers. The US is trying to activate Egypt and Qatar to act as go-betweens. But Egypt, which has declared Hamas a "terrorist organization," and perceives it as a Palestinian offshoot of the much hated "Muslim Brotherhood," is in no hurry. By all indications, Egypt is standing by to watch Israel give Hamas a bloody nose. Nevertheless, Egyptian, Qatari and UN officials are exchanging ideas and proposals for a cease-fire. Tony Blair, the Quartet's official envoy, arrived Saturday afternoon in Cairo to meet with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and discuss how to end the crisis.
But a stalemate involving continued conflict, even if low-level, is risky. It could escalate, or worse, spiral out of control. A single incident, for instance, a Hamas direct hit on a building that killed dozens of Israelis or an Israeli air strike that killed dozens of Palestinian children and women would spell disaster.
Even though the death rates in Syria and Iraq are far higher, the world media has been focused on Israel and Gaza, counting bodies (120 Palestinians killed so far in Gaza). The international community and the Arab world (which has so far only leveled soft condemnation at Israel) show signs of losing their patience.
Time is running out for the Israeli government to decide about a ground invasion of Gaza.
Talks with senior Israeli military and government sources indicate that Israel has no intention of toppling the Hamas regime, fearing that even more extreme militants (a la ISIS and al Qaida) will fill the void. So I think any Israeli incursion into Gaza would be limited in its scope and goals. It will most likely be aimed at destroying more Hamas' rockets and military infrastructure and forcing it to agree to an unconditional ceasefire and long-term commitment not to launch rockets from Gaza.
Israel has reached a military and political crossroads. It is still hesitating as to which path to take. Invading of Gaza is surely possible but still not necessarily inevitable.
YOSSI MELMAN
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