Mati Tuchfeld
srael Hayom poll shows Likud leading with 29 Knesset seats.
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An Israel Hayom public opinion poll, ahead of the upcoming early elections, indicated Friday that the Likud party holds a significant advantage. According to the poll, if the election were held today, Likud would win 29 Knesset seats, making it the largest party and its chairman, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the likely head of government.
Closely following Likud was Labor, the poll found, with 20 seats, followed by Yisrael Beytenu, which would garner 15 seats. Journalist-turned-politician Yair Lapid's new party, Yesh Atid, would win 13 seats, while the ultra-Orthodox party Shas would get 11. Kadima, which currently holds the most Knesset seats, would plummet to seven Knesset seats, the poll found.
According to the poll, United Torah Judaism would win five seats; Meretz would win four; New National Religious Party would win four as well; Israeli-Arab parties Hadash and the National Democratic Assembly would win four seats each; smaller Arab party Ra'am-Ta'al would win two; and National Union would also win two.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Independence would not meet the voter threshold required to enter the next Knesset, the poll found.
On the question of who is most suited to serve as prime minister, current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) led with 33.9 percent. Labor's Shelly Yachimovich came in a very distant second with 9.5%, followed by Lapid (8.2%), Yisrael Beytenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman (7.9%) and Kadima Chairman Shaul Mofaz (3%). A large percentage of respondents (37.6%) either declined to respond or said they did not know.
The poll, taken on Wednesday, was based on a random representative sample of 620 Israeli respondents, ages 18 and above. The margin of error is 3.9%.
Meanwhile, a tentative date has been set for the elections: Jan. 22, 2012. The date was agreed upon after a long debate between the Prime Minister's Office and the various party leaders. Barring any last minute changes, a bill to disperse the Knesset will be approved on Monday.
The elections date is still pending the approval of the Central Elections Committee, which will have to determine whether this date is technically feasible. If not, the elections will be held a week later, on Jan. 29.
Yachimovich on Thursday welcomed the agreement over the elections date. "The Labor Party initiated the elections process," Yachimovich said. "Elections are being held now because Netanyahu was unable to get approval for the national budget. But the public must keep in mind that the prime minister agreed to elections with the understanding that, if he is elected, the next day he will pass a budget with bitter and harsh cuts that will critically harm the Israeli public."
Barak also welcomed the imminent date, saying "Israel needs stability right now, and a short election process will achieve that objective."
Mofaz met on Thursday with former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is said to be considering returning to politics as a viable alternative to Netanyahu. The two did not reveal the contents of their discussion but the assessment within Kadima is that if Olmert decides to return to politics, Mofaz would give up leadership of the party. Olmert confidants said that the former prime minister would make a decision on the matter within two weeks.
Likud is continuing its preparations for the Knesset elections. Within a week, a date will be set for the party's primaries, which will be held next month. To avoid mishaps, the party will order 1,000 computers to be used at 200 voting stations throughout the country during the primaries.
